Snowshoe Hare

Extrapolation à partir d'Elton et Nicholson (1942), qui documentent la corrélation cyclique entre les prises de lynx et l'abondance du lièvre sur plus d'un siècle, pas la disparition permanente du lièvre.

Hudson's Bay Company records show lynx numbers have faithfully tracked hare numbers for at least three centuries, with a one- to two-year lag — evidence of a tight dietary dependency. Those records document cyclical troughs always followed by a rebound; they say nothing about what would happen if the hare never came back.

What's missing to confirm it: No study measures what happens to the lynx when the hare disappears for good rather than simply passing through a cycle trough.

Extrapolation à partir d'Elton et Nicholson (1942) : le rebond du lynx après chaque creux est la régularité observée pendant trois siècles ; son absence après dix ans sans lièvre n'est pas elle-même mesurée.

The ten-year cycle documented since 1671 never shows an unbroken absence in the records Elton and Nicholson used — the lynx always eventually rebounded after each trough. A hare absent for ten straight years would break a pattern no available trade data has ever recorded, producing a lynx collapse rather than another trough followed by a rebound.

What's missing to confirm it: No record covers a full decade with no hares at all — only temporary troughs, always followed by a rebound, have been recorded.