Species → White-rumped Vulture

White-rumped Vulture

Gyps bengalensis

6,000 individuals
Extinction risk Critically Endangered
ScavengerPublic healthCatastrophic decline
White-rumped Vulture (Gyps bengalensis)
Photo: Mildeep, Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0)

What if it disappeared?

Impact Major
A decade

A veterinary anti-inflammatory toxic to vultures that feed on treated cattle carcasses caused the population to crash by more than 99% in a decade — one of the fastest bird declines ever documented.

Documented
Detail

Oaks, J.L., Gilbert, M., Virani, M.Z. et al. (2004). Diclofenac residues as the cause of vulture population decline in Pakistan. Nature, 427(6975), 630–633.

Diclofenac, widely used to treat livestock, causes fatal kidney failure in vultures that feed on the carcasses of animals treated shortly before death. Vultures' communal feeding habits — dozens of individuals on a single carcass — spread the effect across the subcontinent in barely a decade.

Over 5 years, during the collapse

Without vultures to quickly clear carcasses, human mortality rose by more than 4% in the regions most favorable to the species — roughly 100,000 additional deaths per year.

Documented
Detail

Frank, E. et Sudarshan, A. (2024). The Social Costs of Keystone Species Collapse: Evidence from the Decline of Vultures in India. American Economic Review, 114(10), 3007–3040.

By comparing changes in human mortality in regions once highly favorable to vultures against regions where they were already scarce, the authors isolate the causal effect of their disappearance: about half a million additional deaths in total over the period, for a social cost estimated at $69.4 billion a year — without vultures, carcasses rot in the open or attract feral dogs, which fuels the spread of diseases including rabies. An earlier, methodologically less rigorous estimate had put this cost at about $34 billion cumulative between 1993 and 2006 (Markandya et al., 2008) — the gap between the two shows how much the estimate has been refined with better methods, not that the phenomenon worsened.

Since 2006

The decline has slowed, and may even have reversed for this species in parts of India and Nepal — but how long it will take to fully restore the natural carcass-disposal service that was lost remains uncertain.

Extrapolated
Detail

Prakash, V., Bishwakarma, M.C., Chaudhary, A. et al. (2012). The population decline of Gyps vultures in India and Nepal has slowed since veterinary use of diclofenac was banned. PLoS ONE, 7(11), e49118.

Field surveys show a clear slowdown in the decline, and a local rebound, since the ban. But the population remains a tiny fraction of its pre-1990 level, and diclofenac remains available for human use — diversion to veterinary use remains possible.

What's missing to confirm it: No monitoring can yet say when the population will reach a level sufficient to restore, across the subcontinent, the natural carcass-disposal service documented before its collapse.