What If Gone

Species → Leopard

Leopard

Panthera pardus

261,636 individuals worldwide (predictive model combining 392 local estimates)
Extinction risk Vulnerable
Apex predatorMesopredator releaseHuman-wildlife conflictScientific controversy
Leopard (Panthera pardus)
Photo: Shiv's fotografia, Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0)

What if it disappeared?

Impact High
Over 36 years

In three of the six reserves studied by Ghana's wildlife services, the complete disappearance of large predators — including the leopard — coincided with a 365% rise in baboon sightings and a 500% expansion of their range, a textbook case of mesopredator release that went on to intensify conflict with neighboring crops.

Documented
Detail

Brashares, J.S., Prugh, L.R., Stoner, C.J. & Epps, C.W. (2010). Ecological and conservation implications of mesopredator release. In Terborgh, J. & Estes, J.A. (eds), Trophic Cascades: Predators, Prey, and the Changing Dynamics of Nature. Island Press, pp. 221-240.

The analysis draws on decades of comparable wildlife surveys across reserves, directly linking the documented disappearance of predators to the measured rise of baboons on the same territory over the same period. The case is used as a reference example in Ripple et al.'s (2014, Science) global synthesis on large carnivores.

Today

The mesopredator-release story would predict fewer caracals and jackals where the leopard is present — but a large-scale study finds the opposite: leopard presence correlates with higher mesopredator and overall mammal richness, suggesting shared habitat quality can override the simple suppression effect expected.

Insufficient
Detail

Tshabalala, T., McManus, J., Treves, A., Masocha, V., Faulconbridge, S., Schurch, M., Goets, S. & Smuts, B. (2021). Leopards and mesopredators as indicators of mammalian species richness across diverse landscapes of South Africa. Ecological Indicators, 121, 107201.

The study uses the leopard and three mesopredators (caracal, honey badger, black-backed jackal) as indicator species across 221 camera traps spanning five vegetation types and five land-use regimes. It measures a positive correlation, not an experimentally tested cause-and-effect — which limits what can be concluded about mesopredator release itself.

Documentation

Last verified: August 14, 2026